Poland through the eyes of the participant of CEE Real Vienna 2006.

During the conference dedicated to Poland, the predominant opinion among the specialists was that Poland is a country with a dynamically developing economy that has the chance to become a corridor on the East-West and North-South routes. However, the experts' opinions included concerns related to the change of government and the up-coming elections of local authorities. Andrzej Przeliorz from Metropolis Nieruchomo¶ci Komercyjne shares his impressions from his visit to Vienna.

Among the exhibitors at Real Vienna 2006 were leading companies from the real estate and financial sectors, and also representatives of Euroregions from several European countries, the United States of America and Asia. The most well-known included Austria Creditanstalt Bank, Reiffeisen Bank, Immoeast, Colliers and CB Richard Ellis. Poland was especially visibly represented by the Wielkopolska and Mazowsze Regions, and by BPH Bank.

Thematic conferences were a vital point during the fairs. These were divided into 3 subjects: Cities and regions, Investments and Services, and Special projects and markets. Approximately 200 specialists closely related to the real-estate market expressed themselves during the conferences. The conference dedicated to Poland, "Poland: Eldorado or Waterloo for investors" is worthy of mention. In the experts' opinions, one could sense some concerns related to the change of government and the up-coming elections of local authorities. The panellists also warned Poland against the consequences resulting from the lack of both preparation of local zoning plans and motorways. On the other hand, they emphasised that Poland has a chance to become a corridor on the East-West and North-South routes. The very good dynamics of economic development were also praised.

Below is a short summary of opinions concerning Poland gathered from other conferences.

Office space
The Polish market is developed, but still lacking in office space. In Western Europe, there are approximately 7m2 of office space per citizen. In Poland this indicator is 3.5m2. The capitalisation rates of office building are dropping very fast - In Warsaw, they are lower than in Vienna (Warsaw 5,75%, Vienna 6,25%) - which is demonstrated by too high prices for office buildings. However, the creation of a bubble is out of the question and a slight market correction is not expected to exceed 8% of the value of buildings.

Warehouse space
Only the rapid construction of motorways and express roads will allow Poland to fully take advantage of its geographical location. The demand for warehouse space will still grow. Warehouses by the main intersections will be of greatest importance.

Commercial space
The market is very well developed (a secondary market has already appeared). The Aldi investment, although delayed, will significantly influence the level of land price for shopping malls. There is lack of outlet-type shopping malls (forecasts show that these will be the leading type of shopping malls in Europe). The policies of cities in relation to revitalisation and moving commerce back to the city centre will strongly influence the development of companies dealing with revitalisation of facilities and creating a mix of tenants.

Construction of apartments
Despite the high demand for apartments, none of the participants named this process as a boom. The limitations in policy and legal provisions hamper the possibilities to satisfy the housing needs. Many investors (especially from Ireland and Spain) speculate on the price of apartments and build housing estates on a massive scale, however (according to specialists) with too low cost. Due to this, Western investment funds have concerns about the situation of Poland 30 years ago, when apartments were built of concrete slabs. The state of these buildings is self-evident.

Summary
It was hard to find a company whose subsidiary does not yet appear in Poland from among 200 exhibitors. This proves the importance and actual development of the real estate market in our country. However, one knows how fast markets grow and fall, and also the direction that Europe is facing today. Europe looks towards Russia, Ukraine, and even China, as it was looking towards us 15 years ago! In pursuit of larger return on capital, even large companies take excessive risk. As it seems, this does them good, since most of those companies noted above average growth.

However, this information does not mean that Western capital is leaving us, just the opposite. Our commercial real estate market, in spite of being developed, is still growing. Only now begins the investments that will attract, in several years, the biggest investment funds in the world.